A big a part of what makes Week 1 so thrilling — other than the easy undeniable fact that soccer is again — is the unknown. How will offseason additions slot in? Which gamers and groups will shock? We simply do not know what to anticipate. Nonetheless, we will take a look at some previous tendencies to take our greatest guess.
Let’s break down two of essentially the most anticipated video games this week. The numbers current two fascinating matchups.
Packers at Vikings
USATSI
When the Packers have the ball…
Gone are Davante Adams and his 169 targets from final season. In is… properly, we’re not fairly positive. Sammy Watkins? Christian Watson? Romeo Doubs? These three offseason additions, together with holdovers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, are anticipated to be Aaron Rodgers’ high extensive receivers.
Rodgers indicated final month that he desires each of his high working backs — Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — on the sector on the similar time. Final season, Inexperienced Bay ran simply 29 performs with a number of working backs on the sector, twenty third within the NFL. Almost 1 / 4 of these (seven) got here in a single recreation: Jan. 2, 2022 towards… the Vikings. In that recreation, Jones had 106 yards from scrimmage, and Dillon had 83 yards from scrimmage and two scores.
That is one thing to control. Jones hauled in 52 receptions final yr, tied for sixth-most amongst working backs, and his six receiving touchdowns have been second behind solely Austin Ekeler. Dillon, in the meantime, caught 34 of his 37 targets; his 92 % reception price was second within the NFL behind solely James Conner.
It is exhausting to know precisely what this Inexperienced Bay offense will appear to be, however we all know one factor: Rodgers has completely dominated in-division video games lately. During the last two seasons, Rodgers has thrown a mind-blowing 38 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions towards NFC North opponents.
When the Vikings have the ball…
The Vikings even have a brand new look, however for a distinct purpose: They nonetheless have their dominant extensive receiver (Justin Jefferson), however they’ve a brand new coach in Kevin O’Connell, a product of the Sean McVay teaching tree.
One main staple of McVay’s offense is play-action. Final yr, the Rams averaged 8.9 yards per play off play-action, second solely behind the 49ers. This could match Kirk Cousins’ largest power completely.
|
Kirk Cousins On Play-Motion Final Season |
NFL Rank |
|
|
Passer score |
116.0 |
third |
|
Go TD |
12 |
T-Fifth |
|
Go TD proportion |
8.2% |
4th |
The Vikings really used play-action comparatively usually final season. What ought to change this yr is how they line up once they do it: The Rams ran “11” personnel (one working again, one tight finish) on an NFL-high 882 performs final yr. The Vikings, in the meantime, used that personnel on simply 458 performs, twenty eighth within the NFL. This may very well be a giant increase for Minnesota’s two high offensive weapons.
|
Notable Vikings Stats Final Season |
In 11 Personnel |
In Any Different Personnel |
|
Dalvin Cook dinner yards per contact |
6.4 |
4.4 |
|
Dalvin Cook dinner % of rushes for five+ yards |
42.4% |
33.0% |
|
Justin Jefferson goal price |
30.2% |
22.6% |
|
Justin Jefferson receiving yards |
732 |
884 |
Principally, Cook dinner is excellent in 11 personnel, and Jefferson will get extra concerned in 11 personnel. The Vikings are going to make use of much more 11 personnel this yr. That seems like a powerful start line.
How you can watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 11 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: U.S. Financial institution Stadium (Minneapolis, Minn.)
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)
Observe: CBS Sports activities App
Odds: Vikings +1.5, O/U 47
Cowboys at Buccaneers
When the Cowboys have the ball…
The Cowboys are debuting a new-look offensive line, some components by design, some components not. Dallas let La’el Collins (Bengals) and Connor Williams (Dolphins) go away in free company, however the largest blow got here when left deal with Tyron Smith suffered a torn hamstring in late August. First-round rookie Tyler Smith will fill Tyron Smith’s spot, and that is no small job.
|
Cowboys Final Season |
Tyron Smith On Subject |
Tyron Smith Off Subject |
|
Dak Prescott yards per try |
7.6 |
7.2 |
|
Dak Prescott sack price |
3.9% |
6.1% |
|
Workforce yards per rush |
4.8 |
4.0 |
|
Workforce yards earlier than contact per rush |
1.7 |
1.1 |
The group will not be capable to ease into issues. The Buccaneers blitzed on over 36 % of opponent dropbacks final season, the second-highest price within the NFL solely behind the Dolphins. And once they blitz, they do it properly: Their 45 % strain price on blitzes ranked seventh.
The excellent news for the Cowboys is that Prescott threw an NFL-best 23 passing touchdowns towards the blitz final season, with three coming towards the Buccaneers in Week 1. That included this absolute magnificence to CeeDee Lamb simply earlier than getting hit:
The offensive line is not the one retooled side of the Cowboys’ assault: With Amari Cooper in Cleveland and Michael Gallup not fairly again from his torn ACL, Lamb should shoulder a giant a part of the Cowboys’ passing assault. Dallas should hope he can produce extra performs just like the one above.
When the Buccaneers have the ball…
Bruce Arians could now not be the Buccaneers’ head coach, however his “No Threat It, No Biscuit” deep-passing offense will not go anyplace with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich nonetheless in Tampa. And that would pose points for the Cowboys: on this matchup in Week 1 final season, Tom Brady went 6-for-12 for 165 yards on throws at the very least 15 yards downfield with one landing and one interception (the interception got here on a Hail Mary to finish the primary half). These 165 yards on throws at the very least 15 yards downfield have been Brady’s second-most in any recreation final yr.
Who Brady throws these passes too now’s a giant query. 5 of the six aforementioned completions went to Rob Gronkowski, who retired, or Antonio Brown, who… properly, did no matter Antonio Brown did. The opposite one went to Chris Godwin, who is a game-time choice. Brady traditionally has been buoyed by having Gronkowski — a terrific vertical risk at tight finish — in the course of the sector, which then opens issues up on the surface. That will not be the case this yr.
Brady led the league with 2,959 passing yards on throws between the numbers final season — almost 300 greater than second-place Patrick Mahomes. It is an space he may look to take advantage of towards Dallas. The Cowboys allowed 11.7 yards per completion on throws between the numbers final yr, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL. In the end, there are a pair of questions that can be key on this matchup: Can anybody substitute Gronkowski as Brady’s favourite deep center risk? And might the Cowboys cease that space?
How you can watch
Date: Sunday, Sept. 11 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)
Observe: CBS Sports activities App
Odds: Cowboys +2.5, O/U 50.5