NFL

The NFL season is barely one week previous and it is already uncontrolled. The primary week of the season acquired so loopy that I feel I spit espresso out of my mouth at three completely different factors on Sunday and I wasn’t even consuming espresso. 

I imply, the Texans are in first place regardless of having no wins, the Browns gained an opener for the primary time in 17 years and I am fairly positive the Cowboys have already been eradicated from the playoffs. Additionally, kickers could not make kicks, the Seahawks are one way or the other main the NFC West and the Bears acquired flagged for illegally utilizing a towel. I repeat, an NFL workforce acquired flagged for ILLEGALLY USING A TOWEL!

I feel that I as soon as noticed somebody get flagged for illegally utilizing a towel whereas on a school spring break in Mexico, however that looks like a distinct state of affairs. 

Though Week 2 may not high the craziness of Week 1, my picks are positively going to get a little bit loopy, so let’s get to them.   

Truly, earlier than we get to the picks, here is a fast reminder that you could take a look at the weekly picks from each CBSSports.com NFL skilled by clicking right here. Nonetheless, for those who do not wish to click on over, that is fully advantageous with me. As somebody who is definitely sidetracked, if I click on on one thing, there’s a 100% probability that I’ll neglect what I used to be initially doing. 

One factor it’s best to click on on although is that this hyperlink to the Decide Six Podcast. Simply in case I did not make it clear final week, I will be becoming a member of the podcast a minimum of three days per week  — Monday, Tuesday and Friday — for the remainder of the NFL season. On our newest episode, we spent 45 minutes speaking about each bonkers factor that occurred throughout the Seahawks’ beautiful win over the Broncos and you may take heed to it under (You can too WATCH IT on YouTube by clicking right here). 

If you happen to’re extra of a picks particular person than a podcast particular person, I perceive. Let’s get to the picks. 

NFL Week 2 picks

L.A. Chargers (1-0) at Kansas Metropolis (1-0)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)

For the previous 5 years, the one factor I used my Amazon Prime subscription for was free two-day transport, however beginning this week, I am going to get to make use of it for one thing else: THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL. 

If you have not heard, Thursday evening video games can be transferring to Amazon this 12 months, which suggests the one method you can watch the sport is you probably have an Amazon Prime subscription. I do not know if it is well worth the $139 per 12 months I pay for it, however my spouse tells me it is value the associated fee and I assume I am going to take her phrase for it since roughly 67% of every thing in our home got here from Amazon. 

The one method you may watch the sport with out Amazon Prime is for those who reside in a metropolis that has a workforce taking part in within the sport (For example, the sport will air on tv in each Kansas Metropolis and Los Angeles this week). 

Anyway, one more reason it’s best to order Prime is so as to ship one thing to Patrick Mahomes for his birthday! Mahomes’ large day is on September 17, and now that I am excited about it, I assume that explains why he is one of the best September quarterback within the historical past of soccer. The person doesn’t lose within the month of September. I imply, if there’s one rule to creating NFL picks, it is “By no means decide towards Patrick Mahomes within the month of September.”

Since he took over the Chiefs beginning QB job in 2018, Mahomes has gone 12-2 within the month of September and he is thrown 49 landing passes in these 12 video games (That is a mean of 4.1 per sport for these of you who hate doing math). As if that is not spectacular sufficient, he is additionally averaged 328.9 yards passing in these 14 video games wins. I am not saying we should always rename the month “Mahtember,” however I am additionally not saying we should not. 

The Chiefs have gained six straight dwelling openers they usually’re 11-2 of their previous 13 prime-time video games and I feel what I am attempting to say is that there isn’t any method I am choosing towards the Chiefs.  

The decide: Chiefs 34-27 over Chargers. 

Washington (1-0) at Detroit (0-1)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

If you happen to would have requested me final week to rank one of the best video games of Week 2, this one would not have even been in my high 14, which is saying lots when you think about the truth that there are solely 16 video games on the schedule. Nonetheless, I’m now oddly intrigued by this matchup after watching Carson Wentz time warp again to 2017 and play like he did throughout his greatest season as a professional. 

If you happen to did not get to look at Wentz in Week 1 — and there is a 95 p.c probability you did not as a result of Commanders-Jaguars solely acquired aired in like 1.3% of the nation — Wentz threw 4 landing passes in a 28-22 win over Jacksonville. Positive, he additionally threw two interceptions, however as an alternative of melting down after these picks, which is what we have come to anticipate from him, he bounced again to throw two landing passes within the fourth quarter. 

The Commanders really impressed me in Week 1, which is bizarre, as a result of I by no means thought I would use the phrases “Impressed” and ‘Washington” in the identical sentence. The one factor in regards to the Commanders that did not impress me over the weekend was their geographical information. 

If anybody has a geography take a look at arising at any level within the close to future, please remember that Washington state and Washington D.C. have about as a lot in frequent as a mobile phone and a hamster. 

Anyway, nobody cares about hamsters, so let’s get to my decide for the sport. My basic rule of thumb when attempting to choose the winner in a Lions sport is to at all times decide towards the Lions and that is principally as a result of each time they play, it looks as if they fall behind by 9 touchdowns earlier than engineering a wild comeback that ultimately comes up brief. Ultimately, they lose the sport, however cowl the unfold and nobody goes dwelling joyful. Gamers hate the loss, bettors hate that they misplaced cash and Lions followers hate themselves for his or her continuous assist of the Lions. 

This system is precisely what occurred in Week 1 towards the Eagles. The Lions had been getting blown out 38-21 late within the sport earlier than miraculously scoring two touchdowns within the fourth quarter to cowl the unfold. 

I feel Iain speaks for everybody. The ethical of the story isn’t wager on the Lions, but additionally by no means wager towards them, as a result of for those who do, there is a 100% probability they will get a backdoor cowl and you will lose all of your cash. 

Luckily for bettors, the Lions are favored this week, which suggests the one method they will cowl is that if they win the sport and I do not suppose they are going to win the sport. I hate predicting a giant sport from Wentz, however I’ll do it. I feel the Lions secondary goes to battle to cowl the entire Commanders receiving weapons, which goes to pave the way in which for a Washington win. 

The decide: Commanders 27-24 over Lions

Miami (1-0) at Baltimore (1-0)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

As somebody who has been on Twitter for greater than a decade, I do know for a incontrovertible fact that it’s best to consider every thing you see or learn on Twitter, which is how I do know that Lamar Jackson really needs he was taking part in for the Dolphins proper now and never the Ravens. Two weeks in the past, somebody tweeted out a photograph of Jackson in a Dolphins jersey and he “favored” it. 

Lamar says he “favored” the tweet as a joke, however that does not imply it will not ultimately turn out to be a actuality. I imply, I as soon as “favored” an image of a bit of cake as a joke after which I had cake for dinner that evening, so I am simply saying that something is feasible. 

I additionally favored this image of Martha Stewart carrying nothing however an apron final week. Does that imply I am drawn to octogenarians? I do not know. I ought to most likely discuss to somebody about that.  

By the way in which, I am now pondering that it could most likely be for one of the best if I by no means point out any of my “likes” ever once more. 

Anyway, I like this sport as a result of now we have one quarterback who cannot get a brand new contract (Lamar) and one quarterback who cannot get any respect (Tua Tagovailoa) and each guys might assist clear up their drawback by successful this sport on Sunday. Each time the Ravens win, the worth of Jackson’s extension goes up. Then again, each time the Dolphins win, the probabilities of Tua turning into the Dolphins’ long-term quarterback goes up. 

In case you have not seen, I have been stalling this complete time as a result of I am unsure who to choose. The issue is that I did not actually study a lot about both workforce in Week 1. These two groups had been mainly mirror photographs of one another: They each performed nice protection in Week 1, they each threw the ball nicely and neither workforce might run. 

I’ve determined I am giving a slight edge to the Ravens as a result of it is their dwelling opener. Not solely is Lamar Jackson undefeated in dwelling openers (3-0), however the Ravens have gained six straight relationship again to 2016. 

The decide: Ravens 26-23 over Dolphins

Tampa Bay (1-0) at New Orleans (1-0)

1 p.m. ET (Fox)

I do not know why Tom Brady took 11 days off in the course of coaching camp this 12 months, however to me, the most probably concept is that he did it so he might examine the Saints protection for 264 straight hours with out being interrupted. If there’s one workforce Brady has not been in a position to determine since signing in Tampa Bay, it is positively the Saints. 

Brady has performed the Saints 4 instances within the common season over the previous two years and never solely has he gone 0-4 in these video games, however the Buccaneers have misplaced all 4 video games by a number of scores. Of their second assembly of the 2021 season, the Buccaneers misplaced 9-0, which is usually notable as a result of it marks the one time over the previous 15 years that Brady has been shut out. 

When Brady introduced that he was returning to the NFL after simply 40 days of retirement, I am 99% positive his solely cause for coming again was so he might beat the Saints. The excellent news for Brady is that this may lastly be the 12 months the place he can do it. If the Buccaneers wish to win this sport, their greatest wager really is likely to be to take it out of Brady’s fingers. One cause the Buccaneers battle towards the Saints is as a result of Brady is at all times below strain. I imply, the person is 45 years previous; if he is working for his life on each play, that is not a very good factor for the Bucs. 

If Tampa can run the ball, they could be capable to win and primarily based on what occurred in Week 1, they could be capable to do this. For one, the Saints surrendered greater than 200 YARDS on the bottom in Week 1 and that was towards the FALCONS (It was solely the third time over the previous 5 years that the Saints have allowed a workforce to crack the 200-yard mark on the bottom). On the Buccaneers’ finish, they really ran the ball fairly nicely in Week 1 with Leonard Fournette speeding for 127 yards. 

I feel the Saints can win, however I hate betting towards Brady, which suggests I’ve to go along with the Buccaneers. 

The decide: Buccaneers 20-17 over Saints

Minnesota (1-0) at Philadelphia (1-0)

Monday, 8:20 p.m. ET (ABC)

Usually after I’m making a decide in a Monday evening sport that includes Kirk Cousins, my first intuition is to routinely decide towards him. Cousins is 2-9 all-time in Monday video games, however each of these wins got here towards the Bears, so I am unsure they even depend.

In some unspecified time in the future over the previous 5 years, Cousins turned the brand new Andy Dalton AKA the one quarterback you completely can’t belief to win a prime-time sport. Though I’ve no religion in Cousins, I do think about everybody else round him, which I feel cancels out the truth that I do not belief Cousins in Monday evening video games. 

For one, you may’t cowl Justin Jefferson. The Packers tried to cowl him in Week 1, however they failed miserably as he went off for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Even for those who do one way or the other handle to decelerate Jefferson, you then additionally need to take care of Dalvin Cook dinner, who averaged 4.5 yards per carry in Week 1. The most important benefit for the Vikings this 12 months is that they’ve a coach in Kevin O’Connell who really is aware of make the most of each weapon that the workforce has. If Mike Zimmer had nonetheless been the coach in Week 1, the Vikings would have misplaced 7-6 as a result of he solely believes in working the ball and taking part in protection. 

Let’s examine in with a Vikings fan to see in the event that they really feel the identical method. 

O’Connell is nicely conscious that the the Vikings greatest offensive weapon is Jefferson and he is not afraid to make use of him.

I used to be so impressed with the Vikings in Week 1 that I’ve already determined that I will not be choosing towards them for the remainder of the month, so clearly, meaning I’ve to take them right here. Additionally, I am unable to decide the Eagles as a result of that is Week 2 they usually burn me yearly in Week 2. I am not even kidding. The Eagles are one way or the other 0-5 each straight up and towards the unfold in Week 2 over the previous 5 years. Perhaps they need to begin asking to get their bye in Week 2. 

The decide: Vikings 23-20 over Eagles

NFL Week 2 picks: All the remainder

Browns 20-13 over Jets
Giants 27-23 over Panthers
Patriots 19-16 over Steelers
Colts 27-20 over Jaguars
Rams 31-20 over Falcons
49ers 23-16 over Seahawks
Bengals 31-17 over Cowboys
Broncos 24-16 over Texans
Raiders 30-23 over Cardinals
Packers 24-17 over Bears
Payments 34-24 over Titans

Final Week

Greatest decide: Final week, I predicted that the Vikings offense would come alive in an upset of the Packers and guess what occurred? The Vikings offense got here alive in an upset of the Packers. Now, did I do know that the Packers offense was going to fully implode and solely rating seven factors? After all I did. Final week, I actually wrote that “I feel it is going to take every week or two for the Packers offense to regulate to life with out Davante Adams.” Adams positively adjusted to life with out the Packers, however they DID NOT alter to life with out him. 

After wanting on the numbers above, I now formally really feel like we’re simply two unhealthy offensive performances away from Rodgers taking your entire workforce on a South American ayahuasca bender in an effort to save lots of the season. 

Worst decide: My worst decide final week was taking the Patriots over the Dolphins. After I made the decide, I really felt good about it, however after I began watching the sport on Sunday, I instantly knew I used to be doomed after I noticed Joe Choose. I imply, the person was carrying a hoodie on a day the place it felt prefer it was greater than ONE HUNDRED DEGREES outdoors. 

There are solely two varieties of individuals in life I do not belief: I do not belief individuals who put on Crocs and I do not belief individuals who put on hoodies in 100 diploma climate. Even Invoice Belichick wasn’t carrying a hoodie and that is a man who wears a hoodie 319 days per 12 months. Going ahead, I’ll want to search out out what Joe Choose is carrying on the sideline earlier than I make my Patriots decide every week. 

Picks Document

Straight up in Week 1: 9-6-1
SU total: 9-6-1

Towards the unfold in Week 1: 9-7
ATS total: 9-7

Be aware: I’ve had some individuals ask if I choose a few of my picks higher than others and the reply is YES. I listing my favourite picks each Tuesday morning on CBS Sports activities HQ and you may take a look at my Week 2 model by clicking right here. 

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Yow will discover John Breech on Fb or Twitter and if he is not doing a type of issues, he is most likely looking for his Amazon Prime password so he can order a Martha Stewart calendar…. and likewise so he can watch the Chargers-Chiefs sport. That too. 

After just one sport with Trey Lance below middle, the San Francisco 49ers would possibly already be regretting their determination to ship Jimmy Garoppolo to the bench. 

In his first begin since formally being named 49ers quarterback, Lance had a disastrous efficiency in a surprising 19-10 loss to the Bears in Chicago. Certain, it did not assist that the sport was performed in the midst of a biblical rain storm, however regardless of the way you spin it, it was any ugly sport for Lance. 

The second-year quarterback accomplished below 50% of his passes (13 of 28) and threw for simply 164 yards. The troubling half for the 49ers is that Lance wasn’t capable of come by when the 49ers wanted him most. With the 49ers trailing 13-10 within the fourth quarter, Lance had the prospect to engineer a comeback, however any hope of that taking place ended when he threw an unsightly interception to Eddie Jackson that principally iced the win for Chicago. 

Jackson ended up returning the choose to San Francisco’s 21-yard line and the Bears would rating 5 performs later to take an insurmountable 19-10 lead. 

Lance was at his worst in crunch time, going 4-for-13 for 41 yards and an interception within the fourth quarter. The upside for the 49ers is that Lance will not must play in climate like this each week, however the draw back is that if he would not begin enhancing quickly, San Francisco might have a quarterback controversy on its palms earlier than the tip of the month. 

Alright, let’s get to the grades for each sport from Week 1. Should you’re searching for a deeper dive on the Payments’ 31-10 win over the Rams that was performed on Thursday, be sure you click on right here.  

Chicago 19-10 over San Francisco

New Orleans 27-26 over Atlanta

Indianapolis 20-20 tie (OT) with Houston

Baltimore 24-9 over N.Y. Jets

Washington 28-22 over Jacksonville

Pittsburgh 23-20 (OT) over Cincinnati

Steelers-Bengals grades by Bryan DeArdo (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Cleveland 26-24 over Carolina 

Browns-Panthers grades by Jordan Dajani (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Philadelphia 38-35 over Detroit

Eagles-Lions grades by Jeff Kerr (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Miami 20-7 over New England

Patriots-Dolphins grades by Tyler Sullivan (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Kansas Metropolis 44-21 over Arizona

Chiefs-Cardinals grades by Shanna McCarriston (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let her know on Twitter.)

N.Y. Giants 21-20 over Tennessee

Minnesota 23-7 over Inexperienced Bay

Vikings-Packers grades by Cody Benjamin (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

L.A. Chargers 24-19 over Las Vegas

Chargers-Raiders grades by Jordan Dajani (Love the grades? Hate the grades? Let him know on Twitter.)

Tampa Bay 19-3 over Dallas

Seattle 17-16 over Denver

A big a part of what makes Week 1 so thrilling — other than the easy undeniable fact that soccer is again — is the unknown. How will offseason additions slot in? Which gamers and groups will shock? We simply do not know what to anticipate. Nonetheless, we will take a look at some previous tendencies to take our greatest guess.

Let’s break down two of essentially the most anticipated video games this week. The numbers current two fascinating matchups.

Packers at Vikings

When the Packers have the ball…

Gone are Davante Adams and his 169 targets from final season. In is… properly, we’re not fairly positive. Sammy Watkins? Christian Watson? Romeo Doubs? These three offseason additions, together with holdovers Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, are anticipated to be Aaron Rodgers’ high extensive receivers.

Rodgers indicated final month that he desires each of his high working backs — Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon — on the sector on the similar time. Final season, Inexperienced Bay ran simply 29 performs with a number of working backs on the sector, twenty third within the NFL. Almost 1 / 4 of these (seven) got here in a single recreation: Jan. 2, 2022 towards… the Vikings. In that recreation, Jones had 106 yards from scrimmage, and Dillon had 83 yards from scrimmage and two scores.

That is one thing to control. Jones hauled in 52 receptions final yr, tied for sixth-most amongst working backs, and his six receiving touchdowns have been second behind solely Austin Ekeler. Dillon, in the meantime, caught 34 of his 37 targets; his 92 % reception price was second within the NFL behind solely James Conner.

It is exhausting to know precisely what this Inexperienced Bay offense will appear to be, however we all know one factor: Rodgers has completely dominated in-division video games lately. During the last two seasons, Rodgers has thrown a mind-blowing 38 touchdowns and ZERO interceptions towards NFC North opponents.

When the Vikings have the ball…

The Vikings even have a brand new look, however for a distinct purpose: They nonetheless have their dominant extensive receiver (Justin Jefferson), however they’ve a brand new coach in Kevin O’Connell, a product of the Sean McVay teaching tree.

One main staple of McVay’s offense is play-action. Final yr, the Rams averaged 8.9 yards per play off play-action, second solely behind the 49ers. This could match Kirk Cousins’ largest power completely.

Kirk Cousins On Play-Motion Final Season		NFL Rank
Passer score	116.0	third
Go TD	12	T-Fifth
Go TD proportion	8.2%	4th

The Vikings really used play-action comparatively usually final season. What ought to change this yr is how they line up once they do it: The Rams ran “11” personnel (one working again, one tight finish) on an NFL-high 882 performs final yr. The Vikings, in the meantime, used that personnel on simply 458 performs, twenty eighth within the NFL. This may very well be a giant increase for Minnesota’s two high offensive weapons.

Notable Vikings Stats Final Season	In 11 Personnel	In Any Different Personnel
Dalvin Cook dinner yards per contact	6.4	4.4
Dalvin Cook dinner % of rushes for five+ yards	42.4%	33.0%
Justin Jefferson goal price	30.2%	22.6%
Justin Jefferson receiving yards	732	884

Principally, Cook dinner is excellent in 11 personnel, and Jefferson will get extra concerned in 11 personnel. The Vikings are going to make use of much more 11 personnel this yr. That seems like a powerful start line.

How you can watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 11 | Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
Location: U.S. Financial institution Stadium (Minneapolis, Minn.)
TV: Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)
Observe: CBS Sports activities App
Odds: Vikings +1.5, O/U 47

Cowboys at Buccaneers

When the Cowboys have the ball…

The Cowboys are debuting a new-look offensive line, some components by design, some components not. Dallas let La’el Collins (Bengals) and Connor Williams (Dolphins) go away in free company, however the largest blow got here when left deal with Tyron Smith suffered a torn hamstring in late August. First-round rookie Tyler Smith will fill Tyron Smith’s spot, and that is no small job.

Cowboys Final Season	Tyron Smith On Subject	Tyron Smith Off Subject
Dak Prescott yards per try	7.6	7.2
Dak Prescott sack price	3.9%	6.1%
Workforce yards per rush	4.8	4.0
Workforce yards earlier than contact per rush	1.7	1.1

The group will not be capable to ease into issues. The Buccaneers blitzed on over 36 % of opponent dropbacks final season, the second-highest price within the NFL solely behind the Dolphins. And once they blitz, they do it properly: Their 45 % strain price on blitzes ranked seventh.

The excellent news for the Cowboys is that Prescott threw an NFL-best 23 passing touchdowns towards the blitz final season, with three coming towards the Buccaneers in Week 1. That included this absolute magnificence to CeeDee Lamb simply earlier than getting hit:

The offensive line is not the one retooled side of the Cowboys’ assault: With Amari Cooper in Cleveland and Michael Gallup not fairly again from his torn ACL, Lamb should shoulder a giant a part of the Cowboys’ passing assault. Dallas should hope he can produce extra performs just like the one above.

When the Buccaneers have the ball…

Bruce Arians could now not be the Buccaneers’ head coach, however his “No Threat It, No Biscuit” deep-passing offense will not go anyplace with offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich nonetheless in Tampa. And that would pose points for the Cowboys: on this matchup in Week 1 final season, Tom Brady went 6-for-12 for 165 yards on throws at the very least 15 yards downfield with one landing and one interception (the interception got here on a Hail Mary to finish the primary half). These 165 yards on throws at the very least 15 yards downfield have been Brady’s second-most in any recreation final yr.

Who Brady throws these passes too now’s a giant query. 5 of the six aforementioned completions went to Rob Gronkowski, who retired, or Antonio Brown, who… properly, did no matter Antonio Brown did. The opposite one went to Chris Godwin, who is a game-time choice. Brady traditionally has been buoyed by having Gronkowski — a terrific vertical risk at tight finish — in the course of the sector, which then opens issues up on the surface. That will not be the case this yr.

Brady led the league with 2,959 passing yards on throws between the numbers final season — almost 300 greater than second-place Patrick Mahomes. It is an space he may look to take advantage of towards Dallas. The Cowboys allowed 11.7 yards per completion on throws between the numbers final yr, the fourth-worst mark within the NFL. In the end, there are a pair of questions that can be key on this matchup: Can anybody substitute Gronkowski as Brady’s favourite deep center risk? And might the Cowboys cease that space?

How you can watch

Date: Sunday, Sept. 11 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (click on right here)
Observe: CBS Sports activities App
Odds: Cowboys +2.5, O/U 50.5